A mere eight weeks prior that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The winger might become the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
