Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
